Analysis: Three-point and jump shooting efficiency

A team’s ability to make jump shots has long been a key to their offensive success in modern basketball, and in recent seasons more and more of those jump shots have been coming behind the three-point arc. This season, 76% of all jump shots attempted in the ABA League have come from beyond the three-point line. That is a significant jump from the 70% rate from 2016 and the 64% rate from 2013. Two-point, midrange jump shots are becoming a rarity, but do the teams that rely most heavily on three-pointers score more efficiently with jump shots than those that do not?

Digging Deeper

The graph above displays the ABA League’s most efficient jump shooting teams in terms of points per shot compared to the percentage of the team’s jump shots that are three-pointers. It reveals a few interesting characteristics of the league’s trend towards long-range jump shots.

It is notable that the top three teams in the standings are also the top three teams in points scored per jump shot. Crvena zvezda mts, Cedevita, and Budućnost VOLI have all stood out in the league this season offensively and that starts with their perimeter shooting.

However, those three teams differ in how much they have embraced three-point shooting trends. Budućnost, for example, attempts a lower percentage of their jump shots from three-point range than any ABA League. Cedevita does attempt a much higher percentage, but boast excellent jump shooting efficiency numbers. Crvena zvezda mts attempts 11% more of their jump shots from three-point range than Cedevita, but scores only 0.02 points per shot more efficiently. Three-point shooting is on the rise in the ABA League, but it does not make as big of a difference in a team’s efficiency as one might think.

Part of that is because although no particular type of situations has avoided the three-point shooting trend, but efficiency is still driven by accuracy and not shot type. Whether it is a jump shot in transition, from an off screen play called in the half court, or following multiple dribbles of a player going one-on-one, players are shooting from farther away than they used to on average. Even with some teams searching aggressively for that extra point, accuracy still matters above all else, as two of the three teams not fully embracing this trend like the rest of the league still rank among the league’s top jump shooting teams.

Insights and Statistics Provided by Synergy Sports Technology